Participants at the July 15 Bendigo information session on the Fire Operations Plan were briefed on the ‘Risk Landscapes’ project. This consists of running models of different fire scenarios and fuel reduction exercises through a computer to see how they would affect the two aims of human safety and ecological resilience.
The project uses a program called ‘Phoenix rapidfire’, and was proclaimed as the next big thing in 2011–though specific details of what it has achieved were markedly absent from Monday’s presentation.
It’s theoretically possible that if researchers put every available bit of relevant information about a particular piece of land into a computer, and ran various scenarios [about weather conditions, etc] through the program, they could simulate how damaging a bushfire would be. If they varied the information to make assumptions about how much fuel reduction had taken place in those parcels of land, they could see what effect this fuel reduction would have on a possible fire. They could use the same research approach to simulate how ecologically damaging a bushfire would be, and similarly, how much damage a fuel reduction exercise would be.